Date of Award
2026-05-01
Degree Name
Master of Science
Department
Intelligence and National Security Studies
Advisor(s)
Weidong Zhang
Abstract
This study examines how China employs gray zone tactics as a form of deterrence to influence Taiwan's behavior, particularly in relation to moves toward formal independence. Rather than relying on direct military confrontation, China utilizes a range of actions that operate below the threshold of war, including military signaling, cyber operations, economic pressure, and information campaigns. Drawing on both gray zone theory and deterrence theory, this research argues that these activities are not random or isolated but instead function as a coordinated strategy designed to shape perceptions of risk and cost over time. Using a qualitative case study approach, this thesis analyzes multiple examples of China's behavior across different domains, including airspace incursions, maritime patrols, cyber intrusions, and economic coercion. These cases demonstrate how repeated and ambiguous actions can normalize pressure while avoiding escalation, ultimately influencing decisionmaking within Taiwan. The findings suggest that gray zone tactics can serve as an effective form of indirect deterrence by gradually altering the strategic environment rather than through explicit threats of force. This research contributes to the broader literature by connecting gray zone operations with deterrence theory, highlighting how states can achieve strategic objectives without conventional conflict. It also addresses a gap in existing scholarship by providing empirical analysis of China's activities toward Taiwan as a sustained deterrence strategy. The study concludes that gray zone tactics represent a critical tool in contemporary security competition, with important implications for regional stability and international responses.
Language
en
Provenance
Received from ProQuest
Copyright Date
2026-05
File Size
103 p.
File Format
application/pdf
Rights Holder
Hannia Casillas
Recommended Citation
Casillas, Hannia, "China's Gray Zone Strategy As A Mechanism Of Deterrence In The Taiwan Strait" (2026). Open Access Theses & Dissertations. 4648.
https://scholarworks.utep.edu/open_etd/4648