Title

Tolls, Exchange Rates, and Borderplex Bridge Traffic

Authors

Marcycruz De Leon, Greater Houston Partnership
Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., University of Texas at El PasoFollow
Brian W. Kelley, Hunt Communities

Publication Date

1-2009

Document Type

Article

Comments

UTEP Border Region Modeling Project

Technical Report TX09-1

A revised version of this research is forthcoming in International Journal of Transport Economics

.

Abstract

Budget constraints are forcing many governments to consider implementing tolls as a means for financing bridge and road expenditures. Newly available time series data make it possible to analyze the impacts of toll variations and international business cycle fluctuations on cross-border bridge traffic between El Paso and Ciudad Juarez. Parameter estimation is carried out using a linear transfer function ARIMA methodology. Price elasticities of demand are similar to those reported for other regional economies, but out-of-sample forecasting results are mixed.