Why Quantiles Are a Good Description of Volatility in Economics: A Pedagogical Explanation

Authors

Sean R. Aguilar, The University of Texas at El PasoFollow
Vladik Kreinovich, The University of Texas at El PasoFollow
Uyen Pham, University of Economics and LawFollow

Publication Date

11-2020

Comments

Technical Report: UTEP-CS-20-117

Abstract

To make investment decisions, we need to know, for each financial instrument, not only its expected return -- but also how the actual return may deviate from its expected value. A numerical measure of such deviations is known as volatility. Originally, volatility was measured by the srabdard deviation from the expected price, but it turned out that this measure does not always adequately describe our perception of volatility. Empirically, it turned out that quantiles are a more adequate description of volatility. In this paper, we provide an explanation of this empirical phenomenon.