Publication Date
7-2020
Abstract
The current pandemic is difficult to model -- and thus, difficult to control. In contrast to the previous epidemics whose dynamics was smooth and well described by the existing models, the statistics of the current pandemic is highly oscillating. In this paper, we show that these oscillations can be explained if we take into account the disease's long incubation period -- as a result of which our control measures are determined by outdated data, showing number of infected people two weeks ago. To better control the pandemic, we propose to use the experience of economics, where also the effect of different measures can be observed only after some time. In the past, this led to wild oscillations of economy, with rapid growth periods followed by devastating crises. In time, economists learned how to smooth the cycles and thus, to drastically decrease the corresponding negative effects. We hope that this experience can help fight the pandemic.
Comments
Technical Report: UTEP-CS-20-74