Article
When Made to Choose: Cross-Pressured Republican Senators and George W. Bush’s Private Account Plan
City
Washington, D.C.
Publication Date
January 2006
Journal/Book Title/Conference
A Dialogue on Presidential Challenges and Leadership
Abstract
President George W. Bush's "60 Stops in 60 Days" Social Security reform tour provides a best-test case study of high transparency where presidential persuasion, public opinion, and member self-interests clash amid continual media coverage. Whereas most research is limited to roll call voting, this study provides a thorough and unprecedented examination of representative attendance and position-taking by introducing a new unit of analysis -- the presidential stop. I focus on Republican Senators who are cross-pressured between growing negative public opinion and loyalty to the president. Utilizing fractional polynomial logit analysis, I re-test hypotheses about presidential and public opinion influence on representative behavior. I find that growing public opposition to the private account plan and decreasing approval for President Bush on Social Security had a dynamic and overwhelmingly negiative effect on the behavior of Republican Senators.
Editor
Thomas M. Kirlin and Jay M. Parker
Publisher
Center for the Study of the Presidency