Title
Specification of a borderplex econometric forecasting model
Publication Date
4-1-2001
Publication Name
International Regional Science Review
Volume
24
Issue
2
First Page
245
Last Page
260
Source Full Text URL
https://doi.org/10.1177/016001701761013141
Document Type
Article
DOI
10.1177/016001701761013141
Abstract
Historically linked by geography, trade, and culture, border areas of the United States and Mexico are becoming even more closely integrated by the elimination of trade and investment barriers under the North American Free Trade Agreement. Greater economic integration raises the question of whether the traditional approach to regional econometric modeling is applicable to border metropolitan areas. This article examines this issue with respect to the El Paso-Ciudad Juárez borderplex by specifying and estimating an econometric model and then simulating it under different currency conditions. Simulation output from the model is also compared and contrasted with extrapolations from a Bayesian vector autoregressive model. Results indicate that the traditional framework provides a viable means for analyzing international border region business trends.