Title

Specification of a borderplex econometric forecasting model

Publication Date

4-1-2001

Publication Name

International Regional Science Review

Volume

24

Issue

2

First Page

245

Last Page

260

Source Full Text URL

https://doi.org/10.1177/016001701761013141

Document Type

Article

DOI

10.1177/016001701761013141

Abstract

Historically linked by geography, trade, and culture, border areas of the United States and Mexico are becoming even more closely integrated by the elimination of trade and investment barriers under the North American Free Trade Agreement. Greater economic integration raises the question of whether the traditional approach to regional econometric modeling is applicable to border metropolitan areas. This article examines this issue with respect to the El Paso-Ciudad Juárez borderplex by specifying and estimating an econometric model and then simulating it under different currency conditions. Simulation output from the model is also compared and contrasted with extrapolations from a Bayesian vector autoregressive model. Results indicate that the traditional framework provides a viable means for analyzing international border region business trends.

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