Title
Short-run maquiladora employment dynamics in Tijuana
Publication Date
12-1-2004
Publication Name
Annals of Regional Science
Volume
38
Issue
4
First Page
751
Last Page
763
Source Full Text URL
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-004-0215-8
Document Type
Article
DOI
10.1007/s00168-004-0215-8
Abstract
The Tijuana maquiladora sector has grown enormously over the past two decades. Short-term time series characteristics of this segment of the regional economy are analyzed in an attempt to clarify labor market behavior associated with this remarkable performance. Parameter estimation is accomplished using linear transfer function analysis. Data are drawn from the January 1980-December 2000 sample period. Empirical results indicate that real wage rates, maquiladora plants, United States industrial activity, and the real exchange rate of the peso play significant roles in determining month-to-month fluctuations in maquiladora employment. Sub-sample simulation exercises are conducted using a random walk benchmark in order to examine forecast accuracy. Empirical results indicate that the linear transfer function technique provides relatively accurate forecasts all step-lengths. © Springer-Verlag 2004.