Title

Short-run maquiladora employment dynamics in Tijuana

Publication Date

12-1-2004

Publication Name

Annals of Regional Science

Volume

38

Issue

4

First Page

751

Last Page

763

Source Full Text URL

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-004-0215-8

Document Type

Article

DOI

10.1007/s00168-004-0215-8

Abstract

The Tijuana maquiladora sector has grown enormously over the past two decades. Short-term time series characteristics of this segment of the regional economy are analyzed in an attempt to clarify labor market behavior associated with this remarkable performance. Parameter estimation is accomplished using linear transfer function analysis. Data are drawn from the January 1980-December 2000 sample period. Empirical results indicate that real wage rates, maquiladora plants, United States industrial activity, and the real exchange rate of the peso play significant roles in determining month-to-month fluctuations in maquiladora employment. Sub-sample simulation exercises are conducted using a random walk benchmark in order to examine forecast accuracy. Empirical results indicate that the linear transfer function technique provides relatively accurate forecasts all step-lengths. © Springer-Verlag 2004.

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