Title
Regional econometric housing start forecast accuracy in Florida
Publication Date
12-1-1998
Publication Name
Review of Regional Studies
Volume
28
Issue
3
First Page
15
Last Page
41
Document Type
Article
Abstract
Regional econometric forecasting accuracy assessment has traditionally received less attention than its national macroeconometric counterpart. While evidence is available that state and local employment forecasts perform well relative to standard benchmarks, little is known about the historical performance of widely cited regional housing start forecasts. This paper attempts to fill partially that gap in the literature by assessing the accuracy of previously published residential construction forecasts for Florida and its six largest metropolitan areas. Results indicate that regional econometric housing start forecasts are less reliable than regional employment structural model forecasts.