Title
Forecasting water demand in Phoenix, Ariz.
Publication Date
10-1-2016
Publication Name
Journal - American Water Works Association
Volume
108
Issue
10
First Page
E533
Last Page
E545
Source Full Text URL
https://doi.org/10.5942/jawwa.2016.108.0156
Document Type
Article
DOI
10.5942/jawwa.2016.108.0156
Abstract
� 2016 American Water Works Association. Short-term water demand forecasts support water utility planning efforts. This study applies a linear transfer function (LTF) approach to model and forecast water demand for singlefamily residential, multi-family residential, and nonresidential customer categories in Phoenix, Ariz. Among other things, nonresidential water usage is found to be somewhat more price-responsive than residential usage. Variations in responses to weather and economic variables are also documented for the various customer categories. Out-of-sample demand simulations are generated for periods when actual demand is known. Descriptive accuracy metrics and two formal tests are used to analyze the accuracy of LTF projections against two random-walk benchmarks. The descriptive accuracy results for per-customer water usage forecasts in most cases favor the LTF model, but the improvements in accuracy with respect to the benchmarks are statistically insignificant in most cases. Mixed accuracy results are obtained from an analysis of the LTF customer base forecasts.