How People Make Decisions Based on Prior Experience: Formulas of Instance-Based Learning Theory (ILBT) Follow from Scale Invariance

Authors

Palvi Aggarwal, The University of Texas at El PasoFollow
Martine Ceberio, The University of Texas at El PasoFollow
Olga Kosheleva, The University of Texas at El PasoFollow
Vladik Kreinovich, The University of Texas at El PasoFollow

Publication Date

4-1-2023

Comments

Technical Report: UTEP-CS-23-17

Abstract

To better understand human behavior, we need to understand how people make decisions, how people select one of possible actions. This selection is usually based on predicting consequences of different actions, and these predictions are, in their turn, based on the past experience. For example, consequences that occur more frequently in the past are viewed as more probable. However, this is not just about frequency: recent observations are usually given more weight that past ones. Researchers have discovered semi-empirical formulas that describe our predictions reasonably well; these formulas form the basis of the Instance-Based Learning Theory (ILBT). In this paper, we show that these semi-empirical formulas can be derived from the natural idea of scale invariance.