How Probable is a Revolution? A Natural ReLU-Like Formula that Fits the Historical Data

Authors

Olga Kosheleva, The University of Texas at El PasoFollow
Vladik Kreinovich, The University of Texas at El PasoFollow

Publication Date

5-1-2022

Comments

Technical Report: UTEP-CS-22-56

Abstract

In his recent book "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order", Ray Dalio considered many historical crisis situations, and came up with several data points showing how the probability of a revolution or a civil war depends on the number of economic red flags. In this paper, we provide a simple empirical formula that is consistent with these data points.