Why People Tend to Overestimate Joint Probabilities

Authors

Olga Kosheleva, The University of Texas at El PasoFollow
Vladik Kreinovich, The University of Texas at El PasoFollow

Publication Date

1-1-2022

Comments

Technical Report: UTEP-CS-22-01

Abstract

It is known that, in general, people overestimate the probabilities of joint events. In this paper, we provide an explanation for this phenomenon -- as explanation based on Laplace Indeterminacy Principle and Maximum Entropy approach.