How Intelligence Community Interprets Imprecise (Fuzzy) Words, and How to Justify This Empirical-Based Interpretation

Authors

Olga Kosheleva, The University of Texas at El PasoFollow
Vladik Kreinovich, The University of Texas at El PasoFollow

Publication Date

3-2018

Comments

Technical Report: UTEP-CS-18-23

Abstract

To provide a more precise meaning to imprecise (fuzzy) words like "probable" or "almost certain", researchers analyzed how often intelligence predictions hedged by each corresponding word turned out to be true. In this paper, we provide a theoretical explanation for the resulting empirical frequencies.