Publication Date
2026
Abstract
Recession indicator research for the United States and other national economies has accelerated since 2019. Because of relative ease of implementation, these indices show much promise and expand the business cycle toolkit for applied economists, policy analysts, and business planners. From a regional perspective, a potentially attractive feature of these indices is fairly minimal data requirements. This study extends this branch of the business cycle literature into the realm of regional economics. An application of the framework is developed for El Paso, Texas, USA. That metropolitan economy is a natural candidate for this type of exploratory analysis because of the availability of two business cycle indices that provide empirical testing opportunities for any prototype real-time index developed. Basis point threshold selection is based upon probit analyses where the various real-time recession indices are used as the dependent variables. Results obtained indicate that this type of analysis holds promise for metropolitan and regional economies.
Comments
S.L. Fullerton and T.M. Fullerton, Jr., 2026, El Paso Business Cycle Downturn Analysis: 1991 – 2025, El Paso, TX: University of Texas at El Paso Border Region Modeling Project.
A revised version of this study is forthcoming in Volume 5 of Journal of Regional Economics with DOI: 10.58567/jre05020001.