An econometric approach for modeling population change in Doña Ana County, New Mexico
An econometric model using time series analysis techniques is used to model and forecast population changes in Doña Ana County, New Mexico. The model focuses on the interplay between economic and demographic variables. Individual, cointegrated equations are generated to account for the components of population change. Significant results were found in the components of population change—births, deaths, net domestic and net international migration. Birth and death equations prove easier to model because of stable changes from period to period in relation to the nation and income levels. Net migration equations were more difficult to model as economic conditions, specifically, labor market conditions, influence changes overtime. Further, out-of-sample simulations are calculated using predefined exogenous variables for the individual components of population change. Using those results, total population projections are estimated until the year 2018. Doña Ana County will witness a slowdown in population growth.
Villavicencio, Diana, "An econometric approach for modeling population change in Doña Ana County, New Mexico" (2014). ETD Collection for University of Texas, El Paso. AAI1583958.