Bullwhip effect on short life cycle products: The impact of various forecasting methods and parameters

Deepak Agarwal, University of Texas at El Paso


This graduate research work is related in understanding the effect of different factors on bullwhip effect. Bullwhip effect plays a very crucial role in today's business environment. The fierce market competition is taking a toll on each business and demanding a more efficient supply chain. The execution requires detailed analysis of the demand signals, and corresponding development of production plans which minimizes costs and maximizes sales profits associated with the product by reducing upstream variation. We model a stochastic Bass regression Demand Model to simulate the demand pattern. The stochastic model is non-stationary type model. The previous work has been with using a stationary (deterministic) demand pattern. Then we set up a design of experiment to study and analyze the impact of various factors and different levels on demand amplification and inventory variation. The impact of different factors studied here are very critical to a short life cycle supply chain. The proper study and analysis can avoid a huge loss caused due to left over inventory or with backlog orders. The through understanding and careful evaluation of the effect of this factors will help to make the supply chain more efficient and would also make the companies stay competitive in the market.

Subject Area

Industrial engineering

Recommended Citation

Agarwal, Deepak, "Bullwhip effect on short life cycle products: The impact of various forecasting methods and parameters" (2006). ETD Collection for University of Texas, El Paso. AAI1439471.