Publication Date



Technical Report: UTEP-CS-18-20


A recent large-scale study of people's forecasting ability has shown that there is a small group of superforecasters, whose forecasts are significantly more accurate than the forecasts of an average person. Since forecasting is important in many application areas, researchers have studied what exactly the supreforecasters do differently -- and how we can learn from them, so that we will be able to forecast better. One empirical fact that came from this study is that, in contrast to most people, superforecasters make much smaller adjustments to their probability estimates. On average, their average probability change is 3.5%. In this paper, we provide a possible theoretical explanation for this empirical value.