Publication Date



Technical Report TX23-2

Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr. and Steven L. Fullerton, 2023, Business Cycle Downturn Estimation for Ciudad Juarez: 1991-2022, Technical Report TX23-2, El Paso, TX: University of Texas at El Paso Border Region Modeling Project.

A revised version of this study is forthcoming in Journal of Applied Business & Economics.


A monthly frequency metropolitan business cycle downturn likelihood equation is estimated for Ciudad Juarez. The binary index of economic conditions is based upon monthly IMMEX export oriented manufacturing employment. A dynamic probit methodology is used for parameter estimation. Continuous explanatory variables include a 1-year minus 1-month Mexico interest rate spread, a 2015 = 100 weighted real exchange rate index, and a 10-year minus 3-month USA interest rate spread. Parameter estimation results confirm the various hypotheses examined. However, model simulation outcomes are less favorable with the results indicating that accurate forecasting of the post-2010 business cycles may require additional refinement to the index.