An econometric approach for modeling population change in Arkansas
This study models population in the state of Arkansas using a small econometric model, and is similar to a previous demographic model developed by Fullerton and Barraza de Anda (2008). The components of population change consist of births, deaths, and net migration. Births minus deaths equal natural increase, and population in the current period is population from the previous period plus natural increase plus net migration. Births and deaths are modeled as functions of a one period autoregressive lag as well as national trends. Net migration is also modeled as a one period lag of itself in addition to relative labor market conditions. Results confirm that births and deaths contain strong inertial components. National trends positively affect births and deaths as well. Net migration also contains a strong inertial component. Additionally, relative labor market conditions also influence migration. Specifically, if employment in Arkansas increases relative to the rest of the country, Arkansas will experience positive net migration. Out of sample simulations are conducted in order to further test model validity. Simulation results are reasonable and follow recent trends. Natural increase and net migration are expected to decrease. Accordingly, population growth is expected to slow down. Experimentation with alternate specifications in addition to using different assumed growth rates for the exogenous variables is suggested. Furthermore, modeling population in nearby regions may assist in confirming, or rejecting, the results obtained in this study.
Ramirez, David Alexandro, "An econometric approach for modeling population change in Arkansas" (2013). ETD Collection for University of Texas, El Paso. AAI1551243.