Mexican Migration Flows to the United States: A State-to-State Panel Data Analysis of the Consular Identification Card from 2011 to 2014
This analysis explores migration flows from Mexico to the United States at the state level. This study finds empirical evidence to support the idea that social and economic factors can help predict state-to-state migration flows. Using an alternative measure of migration flows, the Matricula Consular de Alta Seguridad (Consular Identification Card) data from 2011 to 2014, a panel data model is constructed from yearly data to analyze the effects of different determinants of migration flows. The migration flows’ determinants analyzed are distance, established immigrant networks in the United States, the US and Mexican states’ business cycles, populations, and crime rates, remittances received by Mexican states, and the nominal exchange rate. Due to the panel data nature of this study, ordinary least squares, random effects, fixed effects, and least squares dummy variable regression results are presented; scaled regression results are also explored. The results suggest that longer state-to-state distances, higher US states’ violent crime levels, and increased economic activity in Mexico deter immigration from Mexico to the United States. In contrast, other evidence suggests that established Mexican immigrant networks in the United States, expanding US states’ business cycles, higher Mexican states’ crime levels, and nominal depreciation of the Mexican Peso to the US Dollar encourage migration flows from Mexico to the United States. Finally, the evidence is mixed and difficult to interpret for the effects of remittances, and Mexican and US states’ population on migration flows from Mexico to the United States.
Mendoza, Jesus, "Mexican Migration Flows to the United States: A State-to-State Panel Data Analysis of the Consular Identification Card from 2011 to 2014" (2017). ETD Collection for University of Texas, El Paso. AAI10283595.