Metropolitan Business Cycle Analysis for Lubbock

Macie Zaynah Subia, University of Texas at El Paso


The objective of this study is to develop a business cycle index (BCI) for Lubbock Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The Stock and Watson (1989; 1991; 1993) methodology is used to develop the BCI and assumes that the co-movements of key economic indicators have a single underlying, unobservable factor. This factor is extracted from the indicators and used to calculate an index that represents economic conditions through an econometric approach. The model uses the Kalman filter smoothing approach which smooths across variables and over time. This results in an index that is smoother with less pronounced expansions and recessions. Indicator series used for the study are: establishment employment, unemployment, real retail sales and real total wages that begin in 1990 and includes the most current data available.

Subject Area


Recommended Citation

Subia, Macie Zaynah, "Metropolitan Business Cycle Analysis for Lubbock" (2017). ETD Collection for University of Texas, El Paso. AAI10260145.