How to Combine Expert Estimates? How to Estimate Probability in the Intersection of Two Populations?

Authors

Miroslav Svitek, Czech Technical University in PragueFollow
Olga Kosheleva, The University of Texas at El PasoFollow
Vladik Kreinovich, The University of Texas at El PasoFollow

Publication Date

6-1-2022

Comments

Technical Report: UTEP-CS-22-77

Abstract

In this paper, we consider two different practical problems that turned to be mathematically similar: (1) how to combine two expert-provided probabilities of some event and (2) how to estimate the frequency of a certain phenomenon (e.g., illness) in an intersection of two populations if we know the frequencies in each of these populations. In both cases, we use the maximum entropy approach to come up with a solution.