Why People Overestimate Small Probabilities?

Authors

David Amparan, The University of Texas at El PasoFollow
Vladik Kreinovich, The University of Texas at El PasoFollow

Publication Date

11-1-2021

Comments

Technical Report: UTEP-CS-21-92

Abstract

It is a known empirical fact that people overestimate small probabilities. This fact seems to be inconsistent with the fact that we humans are the product of billions years of improving evolution -- and that we therefore perceive the world as accurately as possible. In this paper, we provide a possible explanation for this seeming contradiction.