Publication Date



Technical Report: UTEP-CS-19-95


A statistical analysis of hundreds of successful and unsuccessful revolution attempts led historian to a very unexpected conclusion: that most attempts involving at least 3.5% of the population succeeded, while most attempts that involved a smaller portion of the population failed. In this paper, we show that this unexpected threshold can be explained based on the other two known rules of human behavior: the 80/20 rule (20% of the people drink 80% of the beer) and 7 plus minus 2 law according to which we naturally divide everything into 7 plus minus 2 classes.