Publication Date



Technical Report: UTEP-CS-19-13


At first glance, it may seem that revolutions happen when life becomes really intolerable. However, historical analysis shows a different story: that revolutions happen not when life becomes intolerable, but when a reasonably prosperous level of living suddenly worsens. This empirical observation seems to contradict traditional decision theory ideas, according to which, in general, people's happiness monotonically depends on their level of living. A more detailed model of human behavior, however, takes into account not only the current level of living, but also future expectations. In this paper, we show that if we properly take these future expectations into account, then we get a natural explanation of the revolution phenomenon.