Publication Date



Technical Report TX12-2

A revised version of this Spanish language study is forthcoming in Estudios Fronterizos, a public policy and social sciences journal published by Universidad Autónomade Baja California.

Report is in Spanish


This research analyzes short-run gasoline consumption dynamics in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, México. Parameter estimation is carried out using linear transfer function ARIMA analysis. This market is of interest because it is influenced by regional, national, and international economic conditions due to its location on the border with the United States. Explanatory variables that satisfy the significance criterion include the real price of gasoline in Ciudad Juárez, the price of gasoline in Ciudad Juárez relative to that charged across the border in El Paso, Texas, USA, and formal sector employment in Ciudad Juárez. Sample data are for January 2001 to December 2009. Outof- sample simulations indicate that the model is relatively accurate for forecasts of 1- to 24-months into the future.